From the WTO News:
TRADE GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2012 AFTER STRONG DECELERATION IN 2011
World trade expanded in 2011 by 5.0%, a sharp deceleration from the 2010 rebound of 13.8%, and growth will slow further still to 3.7% in 2012, WTO economists project. They attributed the slowdown to the global economy losing momentum due to a number of shocks, including the European sovereign debt crisis.
Husband and I had a chat the other night (because he lives here now, and we can do that sort of thing) that the global elite really has nothing to gain from improving the global economy. Those that are in control (speculation, investment, day trading, ‘market bets’ - supply/demand no longer accurate determinants of economic behaviour) of the economy are making money regardless whether ‘the people’ are keeping their heads above water; some corporations and top elites have even done better during ‘the recession’. So without a slew of links, here’s my HT to Roubini - things aren’t going to get better for ‘the people’ (for a while).
When growth from trade slows, developing nations suffer the most (see Schellberg (2009) ‘Doha Recovery Critical for Global Economic Recovery), unable to ‘clear the development hurdle’. This will be a big setback for the UN Millennium Development Goals and, of course, billions of people globally. Expect developed nation ‘standard of living’ to return to the 1980s - prone to spikes of inflation and (more-so) closed markets - with the slight but notable return of manufacturing and improved relations with proximal trading partners.
(analysis limited to political economy of international trade; could be developed significantly using a (neo)realist frame: ‘resource wars’)